If The Golden Globes Get It Right, This Year Belongs to Get Out and Call Me By Your Name
The Golden Globes are probably the most unpredictable event in awards season, which is precisely why they are so much fun. Who in the audience will the host openly roast? Which A-list star will drink too much champagne before they remember they have to present an award? What nominee will stupidly go to the bathroom during the commercial break right before their category is called? The Golden Globes are a messy award show that loves drama, and I'm here for it.
Other than being the wacky, too-tipsy bridesmaid to the Oscar's stoic and sensible bride, the Globes definitely lay the groundwork for what will eventually become the Oscars race. (Oh yeah, and there are TV awards, too, even though the Emmys aren't until the fall. Golden Globes, you're so wild.) And like any awards show, we're obsessed with trying to figure out who will win in advance. Sure, we'll probably get a few guesses wrong, but that's all a part of the fun.
Here I offer some wildly speculative—yet 100 percent factual and in no way presumptive—predictions of who will take home awards on Sunday night.
Best Motion Picture: Drama
What should win: Call Me By Your Name
What will win: The Post
I'm biased here, as Call Me By Your Name is certainly my favorite movie of the year. It's lush, dreamy, romantic, and sexy. If it took the top prize, it'd be the second queer film in a row to win following last year's Moonlight. And it's certainly a frontrunner. Its biggest competition, however, might be Steven Spielberg's The Post. The star-studded drama about The Washington Post's battle with the Nixon administration to publish the Pentagon Papers is a not-so-subtle statement on our current president and his blistering disdain for the free press. Hollywood loves to get political, and this is the first chance for the Globes to honor a film that openly reflects the Trump administration—and odds are, it'll take the honor.
Best Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
What should win: Get Out
What will win: Get Out
Its awkward classification notwithstanding, Get Out will certainly win this award. Lady Bird is its biggest competition, but Greta Gerwig's charming coming of age film doesn't pack the zeitgeisty punch of Jordan Peele's directorial debut. Sure, horror movies rarely win big prizes, but Get Out's importance can't be overlooked. In a year of disappointing box office performers, the surprise success of Get Out—an indie darling that reached the mainstream—could help it nab a Best Picture trophy.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Drama
Who should win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Call Me By Your Name's young star wowed audiences with his deeply mature performance as Elio, the young man who falls for a visiting college student staying at his family's villa in Northern Italy. It's a commanding performance for the relative newcomer Chalamet, whose face can tell a million stories with a brief look (not to mention the minutes-long close-up shot that ends the film). Having said that, he has a tough competitor in Daniel Day-Lewis, often regarded as our greatest living actor and one who has insisted that this year's Phantom Thread will be his final film. Chalamet has a long career ahead of him; Day-Lewis not so much. Odds are the HFPA will honor the latter with one final Golden Globe.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Drama
Who should win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who will win: Meryl Streep, The Post
While Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards has proven itself to be a polarizing film, with critics split on its redemption narratives (and the clunky use of police brutality and racism in a film largely about white people), everyone can agree that its star Frances McDormand delivers one of the best performances of her career. It's brutal and tender all at once, and McDormand is a front-runner for awards glory. But then there's Meryl Streep. She's gunning for her fourth Oscar for Spielberg's film as former Washington Post publisher Katharine Graham, and she's definitely a shoo-in for a nomination. But first, she'll likely take home a Golden Globe for the biggest political film of the year and earn a chance to give another anti-Trump speech when she accepts the award.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Who will win: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Get Out should win everything it's nominated for as far as I'm concerned, yet Daniel Kaluuya's performance in the film is often overlooked even though his role is central to the movie's success. Yet he's nominated (incorrectly, I'd say) in the comedy category, and his role—and his performance—is certainly not a comedic one, which may hurt his chances here. I'm betting instead we'll see James Franco pick up the trophy for his exhaustive impression of The Room director Tommy Wiseau, which was funny even if it was particularly shallow.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Who will win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
At just 23 years old, Saoirse Ronan has already nabbed three Golden Globe nominations (she previously earned nods for Atonement and Brooklyn). Lady Bird is her star-making role, one that nicely blends the dramatic and the comedic. Likewise, this is the one that will earn her a win. She's got this one on lock.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Who should win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Who will win: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
This is always sort of a weird category, as none of the nominees are true frontrunners. Sam Rockwell's great in Three Billboards, but he also plays a brutal, racist cop who has a not-quite-earned redemption—which doesn't really sit well with audiences once they've had time to process the movie. Armie Hammer's role in Call Me By Your Name is earning him his long-awaited star status, but his performance is overshadowed by his stellar scene partner. Everybody who knows Richard Jenkins's work loves him, but he's hardly the biggest standout in Guillermo del Toro's Amelie-fucks-Swamp-Thing fairy tale. So it comes down to Willem Dafoe, who is wonderful in Sean Baker's The Florida Project and Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World. The fact that Plummer was even nominated for being the last-minute replacement for Kevin Spacey that was slipped in just before the nomination deadline makes me think he's going to get this one as the token Golden Globes wildcard.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Who should win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Who will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Both Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney would be great picks for this award. They're both beloved TV actresses who have picked up a handful of awards for their small-screen work. Surprisingly, neither has earned a Golden Globe before, although Metcalf was previously nominated one for Roseanne while Janney was nominated four times for The West Wing (and once for Mom). Janney has the edge here, as voters may see her as long overdue for the award. Plus, her portrayal of Tonya Harding's mother LaVona Golden is a scenery-chewing delight, while Metcalf's role in Lady Bird is a little more subtle and quiet.
Best Director: Motion Picture
Who should win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Who will win: Steven Spielberg, The Post
First of all: Jordan Peele was not nominated for Get Out, which is a glaring snub. Even though I didn't love Dunkirk, I can't look past Christopher Nolan's masterful direction; the film is a technical marvel even if it felt emotionally empty. I'm betting, however, that his dazzling directorial talent will be overlooked in favor of Spielberg, who began shooting The Post in June (!) and had it finished in time for a Christmas release.
Best Screenplay: Motion Picture
What should win: Lady Bird
What will win: The Post
Greta Gerwig might be more famous as an actor, but her solo directorial debut is a charming semi-autobiographical coming of age story—and it's her sixth produced screenplay. Yet, for the same reasons The Post could take the top honor, Liz Hannah and Josh Singer's tight script is more likely to take the Golden Globe for its grand political statements.
Best Original Score: Motion Picture
What should win: Phantom Thread
What will win: Dunkirk
Radiohead's Jonny Greenwood once again provided a provocative and daring score for a Paul Thomas Anderson film, and the music Phantom Thread is lush and bold and mesmerizing. But Hans Zimmer heightened the tension in Dunkirk with that repetitive ticking (an egg timer, perhaps?) so much so that one cannot imagine the movie without it. That's the kind of score that earns awards, folks.
Best Motion Picture: Foreign Language
What should win: The Square
What will win: First They Killed My Father
This is the second time Angelina Jolie has been nominated for directing a foreign language film at the Golden Globes (she previously earned a nomination for The Land of Blood and Honey). Isn't that odd? The Golden Globes will Golden Globe, and I would not be shocked if she picks up this award, which I would rather see go to a Swedish satire about the art world. Alas.
Best Motion Picture: Animated
What should win: Coco
What will win: Coco
Pixar will naturally take this one in a walk. (If The Boss Baby wins, proving me wrong, I will throw a thematically appropriate temper tantrum.)
Best Original Song: Motion Picture
What should win: "Remember Me," Coco
What will win: "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman
Here is where I admit that I have not heard any of the songs nominated in this category (and that I am annoyed that Sufjan Stevens did not get a nod for either of the songs he wrote for Call Me By Your Name), outing myself as incapable of accurately predicting who will win in this category. But I'm still going to guess: it'll go to the guys who wrote the lyrics for La La Land, who have a new dumb movie musical about the circus.
Best Television Series: Drama
What should win: The Handmaid's Tale
What will win: The Handmaid's Tale
No other TV show captured 2017 quite like Hulu's adaptation of Margaret Atwood's dystopian novel. To think that it premiered last year in the wake up Trump's inauguration and feminist protests across the country is daunting—just consider how prescient it was as we watch the #MeToo movement take hold.
Best Television Series: Comedy
What should win: Master of None
What will win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Aziz Ansari's genre-bending Netflix series is a delight, but the Globes often award brand-new series with awards. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, created by Gilmore Girls vet Amy Sherman-Palladino, will likely pick up this year's prize. It may not be as timely as Master of None, but the Amazon comedy about a 1950s housewife who pursues a career as a standup comedian packs a healthy punch.
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
What should win: Big Little Lies
What will win: Big Little Lies
No one can escape the power of Big Little Lies, HBO's limited series (that will soon just be a regular old series upon its second season's premiere). It swept the Emmys, and it will naturally sweep the Golden Globes.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series: Drama
Who should win: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Who will win: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Say what you will for the sappy, weepy phenomenon: At least it has Sterling K. Brown. He's an awards favorite since his standout turn in The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (although he did not win a Globe for that one). He's entering the competition fresh from winning back-to-back Emmys for the true crime series and This Is Us, so he's a natural pick for this year's Golden Globes.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series: Drama
Who should win: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
Who will win: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale
David Simon's latest may have featured a showboaty double role for James Franco, who made the bold choice of playing identical twin brothers practically as the very same person. But Maggie Gyllenhaal was the true MVP of The Deuce, shattering the typical clichés associated with sex workers on film. But The Handmaid's Tale rules supreme, and Emmy winner Elisabeth Moss the more likely choice for this category.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series: Musical or Comedy
Who should win: Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
Who will win: Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Kevin Bacon is the titular Dick in Sarah Gubbins and Jill Soloway's deeply strange and unsettling adaptation of Chris Kraus's similarly strange and unsettling novel about an artist with an obsessive attraction to a rakish academic in Marfa, Texas. It's some of his best work in years and the kind of oddball pick the Globes often goes for. But Aziz Ansari is the better bet, with this serving as double recognition for the comedian's work as actor and auteur.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series: Musical or Comedy
Who should win: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Who will win: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Brosnahan is a force to be reckoned with as Midge Maisel, a New York housewife whose life turns upside-down when her philandering husband leaves her for his secretary. She does what any upstart '50s-era housewife would do: She goes downtown, steps onto the stage of a Greenwich Village cafe, and reinvents herself as a foul-mouthed, fire-spitting stand-up comic. If any up-and-comer deserves an award this year, it's Brosnahan—and she'll likely earn it.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Who should win: Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks: The Return
Who will win: Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Kyle MacLachlan won a Golden Globe for playing FBI Agent Dale Cooper in the original iteration of David Lynch's mystery series, and he definitely deserves a second one for the revamped series that aired on Showtime last summer. While Twin Peaks: The Return was a critical darling, a lot of viewers were turned off by the slow pacing—and the fact that Coop was almost nowhere to be found, with MacLachlan doing double-duty as the villainous Mr. C and the goofy man child Dougie Jones. The Globes will probably honor another A-list actor who flocked to TV last year to play twins instead. (Sorry, James Franco.)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Who should win: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Who will win: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
There are two likely outcomes in this category. The first: Nicole Kidman earns the award, following in the footsteps in last fall's Emmy win. Or there's the second: Kidman and her Big Little Lies co-star Reese Witherspoon effectively split the vote with their fellow nominees Jessica Lange and Susan Sarandon, both of Feud: Bette and Joan, allowing Jessica Biel to reign supreme for The Sinner. What a wild ride that would be!
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Who should win: Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
Who will win: David Harbour, Stranger Things
Yes, Skarsgard won an Emmy for Big Little Lies. Yes, I already said that Big Little Lies would sweep all categories. But everybody loves Jim Hopper! Plus, as he showed us all last year, David Harbour gives some kick-ass acceptance speeches.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Who should win: Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Who will win: Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Between Twin Peaks, The Last Jedi, and Big Little Lies, one thing is certain: It's the Year of Laura Dern. You can't fight it. Don't even try.
This story originally appeared on Esquire.com. Minor edits have been made by the Esquiremag.ph editors.