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Metro Manila Is Expected to Get 4°C Hotter by 2050, Thanks to Climate Change 

Climate change is going to be brutal to Asian cities. 
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If you feel like summers are getting hotter, you’re not alone. A few decades ago, the studies on climate change seemed like faraway concepts. But just a few years later, and the scientific warnings of global warming have become a daily reality for those who live in hot climates like the Philippines. And it might only get worse. 

According to a new study by scientists from ETH Zurich, a Swiss research university, Metro Manila will be one of the few cities in 2050 that will experience climate conditions that are “not currently experienced by any existing major cities.” The researchers believe that 22 percent of the world’s 500 major cities will experience severe and drastic changes incomparable to existing cities, and Metro Manila is one of these locations. 

Because of changes in weather and climate, the study predicts that Madrid’s climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech in 2022, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, and Tokyo to Changsha. But cities like Manila might undergo changes that existing cities are not yet prepared for. 

Infographic: Asian Cities to Experience Never Before Seen Climate Extremes | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

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By 2050, the capital of the Philippines is projected to become 4°C hotter on average during the summer, while also having eight percent less rain per year. Manila isn’t alone in these changes—we’ve always known that climate change will hit tropical areas harder, Southeast Asia is no exception. Jakarta is expected to become 3°C hotter with 196 millimeters less in rainfall, while Rangoon will become 6°C hotter with 162 millimeters less in rainfall. 

While Southeast Asia is expected to become both hotter and drier, the temperate cities in East Asia will likely become drier by 2050. Hiroshima is expected to lose 268 millimeters in rainfall, Taipei will lose 178 millimeters, and Macau will lose 111 millimeters. Over in the Middle East and South Asia, the already sweltering cities of Tehran, Tashkent, and Jaipur are expected to become even hotter, with Tehran and Tashkent expected to become 6°C hotter and Jaipur expected to become 4°C hotter. 

Given how complicated climate change is, the study aims to present these changes using comparisons to existing cities in order for governments to understand how their cities will change and take the necessary actions to prepare for the future. In cities like Madrid, Spain can look to Marrakech and Morocco to observe how the city deals with warmer and drier climates. However, for the 22 percent of cities with no present-day equal, like Manila, the challenge will be a steeper hill to climb. The world is changing drastically, and cities could become unrecognizable by 2050. 

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Anri Ichimura
Section Editor, Esquire Philippines
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