by JV Ordoñez
Published on May 12, 2026
Embattled Vice President Sara Duterte has just become the first official in Philippine history to be impeached twice in just over a year.
This also comes after her close political ally Senator Bato Dela Rosa's fiasco with local law enforcement at the Senate yesterday over the ICC's arrest warrant against him unfolds. Over the course of just 48 hours, the media mileage on the aforementioned drama has resulted in extreme memefication and satirical ridicule.
Her father, the tough-talking former president Rodrigo Duterte, is currently facing trial at the Hague after the International Criminal Court deemed that it had full authority over the crimes against humanity committed under his time in power.
Duterte is being accused of alleged misuse of the so-called confidential funds, a dubious accumulation of wealth, potential fake documents, and threatening the president and his family, all culminating in conduct unbecoming of a public official.
The House of Representatives voted 257-25 on Monday to impeach the official, as previously the justice committee found probable cause in a 53-0 vote.
Duterte and her lawyer snubbed all the hearings as they offered general denials via press conferences and written statement.
"The process this year has been more exhaustive and more legitimate," Maria Ela Atienza, former chairperson of the University of the Philippines Diliman Political Science Department, told Esquire Philippines in a Viber message. She was pointed about where the fault lay: "It is the loss of the vice president's team to disregard the opportunities given them to answer the charges.
Duterte's team had sought legal remedies from the Philippine Supreme Court to void the claim.
"Should Vice President Sara Duterte be convicted in the impeachment trial, it is likely that another Duterte figure—such as Polong Duterte—or a close ally like Bong Go would attempt to fill the political space she leaves behind," said Arjan Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University and is taking his PhD at the University of Pittsburgh.
"The broader objective for the Duterte camp would be to preserve the Duterte brand as a vehicle for electoral mobilization. At this point, the Duterte surname itself—or political proximity to former President Rodrigo Duterte—remains a major source of political capital."
The vice president in late February announced her intention to run for president in 2028, despite her impeachment woes and other legal controversies looming over her.
She has been a consistent frontrunner for the upcoming elections even before the hullabaloo surrounding her political rift with the sitting Marcos clan.
Lawmakers had filed a fourth impeachment complaint against her on Feb. 19, accusing the official of omitting certain assets, bank accounts, cash holdings, and property transactions in her Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth.
Under the 1987 Constitution, an official can be impeached over treason, bribery, graft and corruption, other high crimes, and betrayal of public trust, all of which the Vice President has consistently denied.
"As it stands, she appears more likely to survive the trial and secure acquittal with the support of allies in the Senate. One of the key objectives now for her camp is political rehabilitation," Aguirre added.
"To achieve that, they would need to portray the impeachment process as politically motivated or procedurally flawed, while pushing for a faster resolution of the proceedings. If she survives both conviction and disqualification, she would remain a highly viable contender for 2028."
Duterte was impeached by the House last year after more than a third of congressmen backed a complaint sent to the Senate. The Supreme Court eventually threw out the case for bypassing constitutional rules.
Hansley Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo, flagged that the recent Senate coup that ousted former Senate President Tito Sotto to install Duterte-ally and ex-Foreign Affairs chief Alan Peter Cayetano will be the biggest variable in the Senate.
"If it rigs the trial to exonerate Duterte, it may solidify her claims, but it can also invoke the risk of a Pyrrhic victory—an overly stage-managed victory has landed badly before; cf. the OJ Simpson murder trial and the Estrada impeachment back in 2001," he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
The prosecution will need to get at least 16 of the 24 senators to convict, or the two-thirds vote mandated by the 1987 Constitution. This means Dutete only needs nine votes (likely from her allies) to walk: Senators Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, Bong Go, Rodante Marcoleta, and the troubled Dela Rosa.
Duterte had also been accused of misusing funds allocated to her offices, namely the P112.5 million earmarked for the Education Department during her divisive term as both the vice president and the education chief.
President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos, Jr. had also faced his own impeachment complaint for allegedly using illegal drugs. Congressmen eventually dismissed the complaint due to lack of merit.
A lot of pundits had feared that more impeachment complaints against the vice president could fuel her presidential bid due to the optics of a concerted vendetta or witch hunt being carried out against the Duterte clan, who aren't short on loyal supporters to this day.
In July last year, the Supreme Court voted in favor of the Dutertes by throwing out the articles of impeachment against the vice president for failing to afford her due process. Associate justices ruled that congressmen can't file multiple impeachment complaints against an incumbent official in the same year, a technicality that stalled the whole process.
The High Court clarified, however, that the ruling did not exonorate Duterte from the charges.
Early presidential polls show Duterte sustaining her frontrunner status with about 25 to 33 percent of Filipinos surveyed showing support, though this was a sharp decline from her peak of 42 percent in polls way back in 2023.
Duterte won a landslide victory in the 2022 elections, getting 32.21 million votes, or about 61.5 percent of all votes, outdoing even President Marcos, who got 31.62 million votes, or 58.7 percent of all votes.
"With the most formidable contender, the Marcos admin can put the full weight of government to support the candidacy of the president's anointed successor," said Michael Henry Yusingco, a constitutionalist and senior research fellow at the Ateneo Policy Center.
"The administration candidate will fully enjoy an immense logistical and financial advantage over the other presidential candidates."
All eyes are on the Philippine Senate, which with each passing day seems to prioritize flawed rhetoric over legislative action.
Esquire PH's resident music scribe, wristwatch disciple, and essayist fluent in niche internet subcultures and Philippine politics.
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