Why The Philippines is not Happy with China's Drills Over Taiwan

The Year of the Horse appears to spell persistent tension in the Indo-Pacific, marked by China's overwhelming aggression toward Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

Few expected regional rifts to magically dissipate this year among China, the Philippines, Taiwan, and other key players seeking to reap positional and resource-driven rewards in these strategically vital waters.

As we start the new year, the Philippines wasted no time in letting China and the international community know that it is concerned about Beijing's drills and military activity around Taiwan, which the global superpower continues to view as a renegade province.

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In case you didn't know, Beijing still sees Taiwan as part of its territory, or a breakaway province. The hegemon has said it is keen on annexing the democratic island home to about 23 million people.

"This heightened scale of coercion has implications that extend beyond cross-strait relations and into the broader Indo-Pacific community," Manila's Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro, Jr. said in a statement.

"Basic principles of self-restraint must be observed, and the rule of international law must not be distorted. The Philippines underscores the importance of upholding international law and regional norms, including the principles of peaceful management of disputes."

To bring you up to speed, China on December 31 launched dozens of rockets and deployed warships and jets near Taiwan to flex its military prowess and to discourage foreign actors from helping the self-ruled nation in case of an invasion scenario.

Beijing called the exercise "Justice Mission 2025," which took place just 11 days after Washington committed an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan that included missiles and communications systems.

"The Taiwan question is purely China's internal affair which brooks no external interference," the Chinese Embassy in Manila told reporters in a Viber message.

"The fundamental status quo of the Taiwan Strait is that both sides of the Strait belong to one and the same China."

Taiwan has been independent from China since 1949.

In 2021, Taiwan's former Defense Chief Chiu Kuo-cheng said China could be primed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027, just a year from now.

In April last year, Philippine Military Chief Romeo Brawner, Jr. ordered the Southeast Asian nation's forces to prep for a potential invasion of Taiwan.

Even Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos, Jr. has warned that the Philippines would be dragged "kicking and screaming" in the face of confrontation between the nations if we look at the proximity of Taiwan being less than 200 kilometers away from the northernmost part of the Philippines.

Manila and Beijing have been at each other's throats if we look at the repeated clashes at sea and air tussles over disputed features in the strategic South China Sea that sees about $3 trillion in trade passing through it every year.

Global actors such as the United Nations and its Permanent Court of Arbitration have voided China's so-called historical claim based on a 1940s map covering a seemingly arbitrary "nine-dash line."

The Philippines has failed to enforce the ruling due to an imposing Chinese fishing and coast guard fleet. Aside from the Philippines and China, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam also have claims to parts of the South China Sea.

Teodoro cited Manila's intention to reaffirm its vision for a free, open, stable, and rules-based Indo-Pacific "where differences are resolved through peaceful means without deception, coercion, or intimidation."

"We call on relevant Philippine figures to abide by the commitment of their government, stop interfering in China's internal affairs, and stop aiding and abetting separatism for 'Taiwan independence,'" according to the Chinese Embassy in Manila.

For security expert and founder of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation Chester Cabalza, the Philippines must still prioritize safeguarding the approximately 200,000 Filipinos in Taiwan despite its adherence to the One-China policy.

"China's People's Liberation Army's 'Justice Mission' military exercise from the Eastern Theater Command is deemed one of the biggest simulations against Taiwan, using army, navy, air force, and rocket force. They will swarm around the self-ruled island with warships and drones in a forcible retake scenario amid the Japan-US coalition in the first island chain," he told Esquire Philippines in a Facebook Messenger chat.

"Manila should not be complacent about this scenario as it impacts regional security, especially given that Manila holds the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this year."

Beijing's position remains consistent as the Chinese Embassy in Manila says that the One-China policy is the international consensus and the "basic norm in international relations."

"It is also the political foundation for China's relations with all 183 countries having diplomatic ties with China. The Philippines made a clear commitment to one-China when establishing diplomatic ties with China," according to the embassy.

The Philippines has consistently committed to the policy dating back to the Joint Communique of the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the Government of the People's Republic of China signed by President Ferdinand E. Marcos and Premier Zhou Enlai on June 9, 1975.

Under the deal, Manila and Beijing would agree to settle disputes by peaceful means.

To recall, the Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned Philippine Ambassador to China Jaime FlorCruz after President Marcos, in an X post, congratulated Taiwan President William Lai Ching-te on his electoral win last year.

Marcos' post last year said he was looking forward to "close collaboration, strengthening mutual interests, fostering peace and ensuring prosperity for our peoples in the years ahead," to which Lai responded with Taiwan recognizing the "enduring friendship between the two nations."

The Philippine Foreign Affairs department clarified that the government still committed to the One-China Policy despite the commander-in-chief's pleasantries and that it was Marcos' way of thanking Taiwan for hosting about 200,000 overseas Filipino workers as Manila and Taipei "share mutual interests."

"While Manila stands its ground on the One-China policy, the Philippines must prepare a full-scale contingency plan to safeguard Filipinos and other nationalities due to the country's geographical proximity to Taiwan," Cabalza said.

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