The Global Population Is Booming. So, Why Are People Worried About Population Collapse?

In November 2022, humanity ticked an astounding historical milestone: The world population eclipsed eight billion people. Eight billion. It’s a number too big to imagine, which is why much of the reception to the news is the opposite of what one would expect. Instead of celebrating the fact that we are living longer and healthier lives compared to any other point in history, many expressed concern that we may be teetering into population collapse. 

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This poses another question: Why people are worried about decreasing populations when the data shows that the global population is increasing? The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reports that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It’s also projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100. But despite these numbers, The State of World Population (SWP) report 2023 records a significant decrease in fertility rates in select regions in recent decades. 

According to the data presented, two-thirds of the global population lives in an area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, which is roughly the required replacement level. It also states that only eight countries will account for 50 percent of the projected world population growth by 2050: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and, of course, the Philippines. 

In layman’s terms, that means developing countries are experiencing growing populations while developed countries are experiencing aging populations. For first world countries like Japan, which is decreasing at a rapid rate, this poses a huge problem in terms of future manpower. While in third world countries like the Philippines, the birth rate could lead to increased poverty and hunger. Think of it this way: Having too many people could deplete your resources, but having too few people could cause industries and institutions to collapse. When it comes to population, balance is the key. But when discussing population, societies should also question what kind of world we’re bringing people into.    

Take a look at the state of the world today: Human-induced global warming has spurred unprecedented changes to the Earth’s climate; nearly seven million deaths were caused by a global pandemic; 696 million people still live (barely surviving) in extreme poverty; and multiple political conflicts continue to cause global economic uncertainty. India has even surpassed China and has become the world’s most populous country. It’s no wonder people are concerned about over- or under-population. 

However hyperbolic these concerns may sometimes seem, there’s still no reason for them to be overlooked. The impact of population trends on society is undeniably powerful. As the SWP report underscores, “They affect culture and social relations, economies, and political discourse. They influence how we approach climate change, allocate resources, respond to shifting workforces, and more.”

Dr. Natalia Kalem, executive director of UNFPA, highlights that gender equality is often an overlooked solution to world population concerns. In the foreword for the SWP report, she said: “Over and over, we see birth rates identified as a problem — and a solution — with little acknowledgment of the agency of the people doing the birthing.” 

When this happens, initiatives like safe sex education, family planning, and reframing contraceptive attitudes are reduced to tools for “population control,” instead of avenues to promote the health and autonomy of individuals. Particularly, women. 

“Every member of our human family has the right to make free and informed choices about their health, bodies, and futures. This right should be the starting point for all conversations about population,” added Dr. Kalem. "Population is, after all, about people, about creating the conditions for all 8 billion of us to live freely and fully, equal in dignity and rights, on a healthy, safe, and prosperous planet. When we invest in people and their potential, in their rights and choices, all of humanity benefits.”

Many discussions have taken place about the role of women in population control. They’re having children too early or too late; they’re having too many children, or they’re not having enough; now they don’t even want to have children at all—it fluctuates along with population trends. Never mind that it takes two to create children. In circumstances of overpopulation, the blame is often left on the woman’s shoulders, regardless of the fact that nations with overpopulation lack sex education and ignore male responsibility in birth control. And in circumstances of aging populations, the blame is also placed on the woman for opting out of having children, ignoring the social and economic factors that might be in play. 

The UNFPA suggests, then, that instead of policing women’s autonomy and restricting their behavior, they should be placed at the center of policy-making when it comes to population concerns. This means ensuring that women are free to make their own decisions and have access to healthcare that is “affordable, acceptable, accessible, and of quality.”

In short, making women have more or less babies won’t save the world from itself. When discussing population, the real question isn’t if we need more or fewer people in the world but whether the type of world we’re bringing them into is worth living in. 

As said in the report, “In order for a population to be maximally healthy and empowered to contribute, innovate and thrive, its people must enjoy—as a precondition—the fulfillment of their rights and choices.”