Why Timor-Leste Joining ASEAN Matters for the Philippines
There’s a new member of the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN), with Timor-Leste formally joining the fold of the economic and regional bloc during a ceremony held in Malaysia. The Philippines is set to hold chairmanship of ASEAN next year.
East Timor is the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which expands the strong regional market of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand to a whopping 680 million people.
With a dynamic backdrop of growing uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, it's prudent to take a moment to see what this new addition to the regional bloc means for the Philippines, which seeks to pursue a free and peaceful Indo-Pacific and steady multilateral economic parternships.
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We will be zeroing in on the diplomatic and security dimensions on account of how the entry of East Timor, which is one of the world's youngest countries, in ASEAN would potentially shake up Manila’s ties with major superpowers under the United States and belligerent China.
Dili's historic entry into ASEAN was made official at the opening of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur as member states signed the official declaration admitting the young nation into the bloc.
The regional organization was in the middle of its annual meeting in Malaysia as its members try to bolster partnerships in issues such money laundering, climate change, geopolitical tensions, and global trade.
Aside from the now 11 member states, US President Donald Trump and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres graced the function to observe these conversations.
“Manila has been active in helping Dili in capacitating its human resource,”Chester Cabalza, founding president of the security think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told Esquire Philippines in an interview. “The shift to more regionwide issues on economic development and active regional integration notwithstanding the importance of maritime security—will help ASEAN fulfill its mandate as the main driver in various diplomatic and defense resolutions in the region.”
“Timor-Leste’s entry is good insofar as it balances out ASEAN and the pro-China people,” Hansley Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “But if Timor-Leste is also driven by circumstance to be pro China, it will be a challenge.”
Juliano added that the country’s ties to other Pacific neighbors like Papua New Guinea, Australia and New Zealand can at least push for greater multilateral options.
It’s no secret that China and the Philippines have been at each other’s throats over the strategic and resource-filled South China Sea after repeated skirmishes at disputed features located in the waterway over the past year.
The Hague-based UN Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 voided China’s sweeping claims of over 80 percent of the South China Sea for having no legal basis. But this hasn’t stopped Beijing from building manmade islands on a few submerged features in the strategic sea, constructing runways, hangars, radar systems, and ports to maintain the country’s strong naval presence in the waterway.
To recall, China based its claims on 1940s maps, which it sees as its historical claim over the waterway that sees more than than $3 trillion worth of global trade flow through it.
The Philippines is struggling to enforce its tribunal victory because of its neighbor's imposing coast guard and fishing fleet.
The Chinese Coast Guard has constantly blocked Philippine resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship intentionally grounded to stake Manila’s claim on the waterway.
“Timor Leste will assert its position as an active actor in the Indo-Pacific given its strategic location between southeast Asia and the Pacific region,” Cabalza added. “Now as a member of ASEAN, I believe Dili will embrace international rules-based norms since it is a key maritime route in the region.”
Why did Timor-Leste’s membership take this long?
At the summit, Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. called the development a “historic milestone,” with the expansion being the bloc’s first since 1999 when Cambodia joined.
“For the people of Timor-Leste, this is not only a dream realized, but a powerful affirmation of our journey–one marked by resilience, determination and hope,” Timor-Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao said in an emotional speech as he signed the declaration on his young nation’s long-awaited accession. “Our accession is a testament to the spirit of our people, a young democracy, born from our struggle.”
The country became an independent nation only in 2002, three years after a UN-supervised referendum following a volatile 24-year occupation by Indonesia that saw pushback from pro-independence parties and a rebellion.
Before that, the country was under Portuguese rule for three centuries.
Timor-Leste formally applied for ASEAN membership in 2011, with the regional bloc greenlighting “in principle” its admittance into the fold of nations at a 2022 summit.
"This is not the end of a journey. This is the beginning of an inspiring new chapter,” the nation's Prime Minister added.
The accession is 14 years in the making and saw delays due to human resource and economic challenges.
Timor-Leste is home to about 1.4 million people and is among Asia's poorest countries . It's membership in the regional bloc is seen to give it access to ASEAN free trade deals among other investment opportunities in a broad regional market.
The young Southeast Asian nation mainly generates revenue from its oil and gas sector with plans to diversify its revenue streams in the future as it sees gradual depletion of its resources.
Marcos had urged his ASEAN partners to find a consensus in dealing with issues in the South China Sea which he called “disparate situations that the different member states are operating under.”
Talks about a code of conduct for behavior in the South China Sea date back to 2002, when the regional bloc and China committed to crafting a code of conduct and a framework to deter conflict through diplomatic means in the waterway, but progress has stalled over the years.
Malaysia is set to hand over the reins of the ASEAN chairmanship to the Philippines on October 28, Tuesday. Chairmanship in the regional bloc switches hands in alphabetical order annually, with each member state to hold the post for only a year.
ASEAN and the task of keeping regional peace
ASEAN Foreign Ministers had also issued a joint statement calling on all claimants in the South China Sea to pursue peaceful and diplomatic solutions to the disputes.
Former Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo noted last year that Manila is ready to raise its sea row with China when it assumes the ASEAN chairmanship next year after tensions with Beijing worsened in the past year.
“A fellow Catholic country with broadly similar concerns and democratic culture is always a good thing in ASEAN,” said Juliano, the political science instructor at the Ateneo. “What it may complicate is the balance of reading interests. Would Timor-Leste be on our side or are they also economically dependent on other countries? It's always good to watch.”
The political analyst noted that though Timor-Leste may have fewer security problems with China, it may not be too keen on jumping in on the issue. “But of course better that than to be openly allied with China, right?”
Manila’s diplomatic ties and geopolitical concerns will be intriguing to look at amid these leadership shakeups, especially with Japan electing its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who is a known conservative and who holds a hawkish stance on China.
Marcos has also remained adamant on coming up with the aforementioned code of conduct, citing the need to form a legally binding framework to keep “miscalculations at sea” at bay.
Besides the Philippines, ASEAN states such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam also have competing claims over the disputed waterway.
ASEAN leaders have also been actively discussing key regional peace concerns amid other sectors such as the situation in Myanmar, climate change, and global tariff schemes.
“The 11-member ASEAN shows a dramatic transformation in becoming a constant fulcrum to the power competition of China and the US, and ASEAN has mastered that art of diplomacy which helped this respected regional body survive the major changes in the world,” said Cabalza, the security and geopolitical analyst. “ASEAN has been a major force in maintaining the regional order and with a unified Asean it can become a major actor in nominating the next world’s police.”
