Why It's Crucial for Japan and the U.S. to Secure the Philippines' Cooperation in a Tripartite Alliance

After revealing that the Philippines is eyeing a VFA-like security arrangement with Japan, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. revealed that his country is eyeing what could be a tripartite security alliance with the U.S. and Japan, two of the world’s most powerful militaries and economies. 

This new development comes on the heels of the renewed Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or EDCA between the Philippines and the United States, which is hinged on the Visiting Forces Agreement or VFA between the two countries. If it pushes through, the security deal between Japan and the Philippines could be something similar to the VFA, in which the two countries will have specific access to each other’s military bases and facilities. Under the current VFA, American troops are also allowed to train with their Filipino counterparts on counterinsurgency, amphibious assaults, and rescue operations, among others. 

In an interview with Japan’s Kyodo News, President Marcos Jr. clarified that the tripartite alliance between the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. is one of the many issues tackled during his trip to Tokyo. 

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“It is something that we certainly are going to be studying upon my return to the Philippines. I think just part of the continuing process of strengthening our alliances because in this rather confusing,” said Marcos. 

“I'm not talking only about the South China Sea, I'm not only talking about the Indo-Pacific region but, of course, there is a conflict still ongoing in Ukraine and the rather disturbing effects that it has all around the world,” he added. 

It is not yet clear how Japan and the Philippines will proceed with such a deal, considering the VFA is hinged upon the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the U.S. In 2021, the U.S. changed its interpretation of the Mutual Defense Treaty, saying any attack on Philippine public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific, including in the West Philippine Sea, will trigger America’s treaty obligations to come to the defense of the Philippines. This was in stark contrast to past interpretations during the Obama administration, which said the treaty does not cover the West Philippine Sea or disputed waters. 

According to Marcos, creating alliances is an essential part of maintaining stability in different regions of the world, not only in the West Philippine Sea, which provides a backdrop of the motivations of the three countries. 

The South China Sea, which includes the West Philippine Sea, is one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints because the area is claimed partly or in whole by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Dozens of outposts litter the atolls and shoals of this resource-rich maritime region, which is also a crucial shipping lane and Asia’s gateway to the world. 

The Philippines and Japan recently agreed to beef up their defense and security ties, which could mean more training and transfer of weapons, equipment, and technology between the two countries. Already, the Philippines has acquired two state-of-the-art coast guard vessels from Japan: BRP Teresa Magbanua and BRP Melchora Aquino. The two 97-meter multi-role response vessels made by Japan’s Mitsubishi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. are now the flagships of the Philippine Coast Guard. 

The Japanese Embassy in Manila confirmed that President Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed “to advance consideration to promote cooperation in defense equipment and technology as well as trilateral cooperation among Japan, the United States, and the Philippines.” 

If this pushes through, the three countries could see more interoperability training among their navies and air force, but more crucially, Japan could install military hardware and supplies in the strategically located military bases along the eastern border of the Philippines in Palawan, Pangasinan, and Ilocos. It will also be handy if Japan or the U.S. would provide over-the-horizon radar systems for the Philippines, which recently acquired ship-sinking missiles. The Philippines’ newly commissioned Shore-Based Anti-Ship Missile Battalion may also benefit from the two global powers in developing strategies and enhancing its capabilities as a missile-wielding nation. 

Although the Philippines has significantly stepped up its military modernization program by acquiring more ships, missiles, and hardware, it cannot be denied that there is a great disparity in terms of the capabilities of the country compared to the U.S. and Japan. But the Philippines has something very crucial that the U.S. and Japan badly need if the two wish to encircle China: the most strategic location in Asia Pacific. And it is for this very reason that Japan and the U.S. must secure the Philippines’ cooperation: Without the Philippines, China will have free reign in the South China Sea. 

As of this moment, the Philippines’ noisy rattling in the international arena and its stubborn challenging of China’s vessels in the West Philippine Sea are keeping China’s maritime expansion into the rest of Southeast Asia. The Philippines is also a gateway to the Pacific and Japan’s southern seas, serving as a geographic obstacle to China, and a second-tier line of defense of the U.S. (the first is Taiwan) against any Chinese expansion into the Pacific, which the U.S. largely controls through a number of territories (Palau, Guam, and Hawaii, among others). The U.S. and Japan also see the Philippines as the most strategic location for launching the quickest response in case of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. 

Considering these, the Philippines should leverage its value as a strategic partner not because it has a powerful military, but because of how its geographic position could greatly serve the interests of the U.S. and Japan.