El Niño is Pushing Up Rice Prices, But DA Says We Can Expect These to Go Down in June

From farm to retail prices, it’s always been a domino effect. When the cost of food is skyrocketing, it’s usually because of supply problems. In the case of palay or unhusked rice, crops are damaged either when it’s too dry or it’s raining too much.

So, with the excessive heat caused by El Niño, you can already tell why the cost of rice is going up these days — that is, if it has ever gone down.

But according to Department of Agriculture (DA) Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel, rice prices are likely to decrease in June due to lower costs in the international market.

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“It’s declining up until last week at $590 per ton,” Laurel said last Friday. 

Unfortunately, prices surged again to $630 per ton at the start of May, but the DA expects these to drop by next month.

“On average, I think prices should be lower by next month a little bit,” Laurel said. “If world prices go down, definitely, local prices will go down.”

Movements in the global market impact local prices — that's a given. However, it's important to note that this isn't the only factor to consider. From the costs of planting, farming, and harvesting to the expenses retailers incur to make supply available in the markets, all these factors determine the price you pay for a kilogram (kg) or bag of rice.

Based on recent data from the DA, locally produced rice is currently selling for P50 to P66 per kg in Metro Manila, while the imported varieties are priced between P48 and P65 per kg.

Despite consistently increasing prices, Laurel is optimistic the country could bounce back in terms of palay production in the next harvest season.

“El Niño really had its effect. Padating na ‘yung ulan. Sana walang malakas na bagyo. Kung walang malakas na bagyo, babawi tayo (The rainy season is approaching. Hopefully, there won’t be a strong storm. If there’s none, we’ll be able to recover),” said Laurel.

“But of course, darating ang La Niña. Sana hindi ganu’n kalakas; then we should be okay (But of course, La Niña will come. Hopefully, it won’t be that strong; then we should be okay),” he added.

Figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed palay production fell to 4.68 million metric tons (MT) in the first quarter of 2024. This was down by 1.96 percent from 4.77 million MT in the same period last year.